Killing Eldricht would be nice to get rid of the third party, but it's not the biggest priority for town on Day 1, because it takes him a while to achieve his win condition. (Like at least 7 nights if greens aren't killed/lynched, unrealistic, I know, but just an example) As well, we have the psychologist who can cure insanity.
So, to talk about the set-up a little, do people think it would be a good idea for the psychologist to claim his target at the end of night 1? It makes the psychologist claim early, but that way if he dies, then we have probably found the Eldricht Horror. The only way this wouldn't be the case, would be if mafia shot him, but then he could just claim earlier. (Because mafia don't really want to shoot him right away without reason, as he keeps them from losing the game to insanity as well)
There's both Pro's and Con's to this, and it depends on the relative threat that we perceive the Eldricht Horror as.
Pros:
-Lets us catch the Eldricht Horror more easily, knowing as soon as the Psychologist dies. -Let's us coordinate the Psychologist a little (don't know if this is necessary)
Cons:
-Mafia know not to shoot the Psychologist, reducing the pool of townies (1 person so not that terrible) -Mafia can screw with town by killing the Psychologist and trying for a mislynch on his target.
Personally, I don't really think it's worth it after actually writing out the Pros and Cons, but I don't think I'm going to delete this post because I spent like 5 minutes writing it, and it provides a good start for actual discussion. In my opinion, a better option is actually having the psychologist bread-crumb his visits, so that way, if he ever dies and flips, then we have a list of players cleared of being the Eldricht Horror, and we have a possible target for who the Third Party actually is.
On August 24 2011 02:57 Erandorr wrote: Thing is , how easy is it for ANYONE to claim psychologist and be untouched unlessthe true psychologist comes forward and then stuff will just get messy?
Then we have a confirmed scum, and a 1-1 trade with mafia, which benefits town. (No way eldricht would be that stupid).
Also, looking at the OP again, I think that our Doctors should also breadcrumb their visits, because insanity is revealed on flip as well, and along with the psychologist, we can cross-reference to find the eldricht horror.
As well, all townies should maybe put fake breadcrumbs into their posts, because that way mafia can't blue-snipe by finding all the breadcrumbs. Then, we just ignore any crumbs, until that person flips or claims.
On August 24 2011 03:06 Erandorr wrote: Oh btw Wiggles I just reread the OP and whoever is Psy. should not claim . You didnt think it through. Psy claims -> Aldrich visits FIRST -> psy dies -> the end and aldrich will have his way.
Am I correct with the rule part?
Oh, missed that too. Doesn't matter though, because I realized him claiming is a bad idea anyways. :p
So we can have discussion, I'm going to respond to the case against me, which for once seems thought out for a day 1 case. My responses in Blue.
On August 24 2011 05:38 TheFerryman wrote: Ladies and Gentelmen. The Eldricht horror has just successfully ousted himself. Well done wiggles.
Let me ask you gentelmen a question, what is the horror afraid of? Two things, 1.) the lynch, as it kills him and makes him incapable of winning, and conversely town losing too fast, since then he won't be able to infect everyone in time. This means that the horror is going to try to present an organized, pro-town stance and appearance, so expect things like long policy/mechanics posts and attempts at directing town attention early in the game, and later focus on scumhunting, probably successfully getting scum lynched. He obviously wants to draw scum hits, since they increase the number of insane people in the town. All this means he is going to try to *appear* town, while pushing to resolve his fear #2
Making posts talking about the set-up is the best way to get people talking about the game. It provides an entry point for discussion, which is normally sorely lacking in games that start on Day 1. Before my post, all people were talking about was basically fluff, and completely useless from a scum-hunting point of view. Basically, you got people making terrible votes that don't even generate pressure, and a bunch of OMGUS. I even made fun of this by randomly voting for Eiii and posting the song "Under Pressure" (Haha haha haha :p)
So, by talking about the set-up, we can begin to gather information, see where people stand. Anti-town players are going to try to push for something anti-town while attempting to make it appear pro-town, or divert town attention to something meaningless. Honestly, I was surprised that no one else had attempted to talk about the set-up, because that's the easiest way to start a conversation.
Also, any decent player is going to open with a general post, and then scum hunt. It doesn't make sense to do otherwise, and if you are new, then you too suffer from that terrible disease of "You must scum hunt when there is no content to do so from", for an example of this, check out Arkham Asylum, which you've claimed to have read, and that I'll be referencing again.
2.) The psychologist, as every night the psychologist is alive the horror's wincondition becomes a little harder to carry out. For this reason expect plans that involve the psychologist claiming, and plans that require mass claims. Remember the sooner the psychologist is dead, the sooner the horror can carry out his wincondition. + Show Spoiler +
I never asked the psychologist to claim. I considered it, then decided it was a bad idea. You're putting words in my mouth -_-. Also note no plans about mass-claiming.
With that in mind, lets take a good look at Wiggles first post of the game. My comments in spoilers inside the quote
On August 24 2011 02:51 Mr. Wiggles wrote: ##Vote: Eiii Where you at?
Killing Eldricht would be nice to get rid of the third party, but it's not the biggest priority for town on Day 1, because it takes him a while to achieve his win condition. (Like at least 7 nights if greens aren't killed/lynched, unrealistic, I know, but just an example) As well, we have the psychologist who can cure insanity.
Right here, he is already downplaying the danger the horror poses to the town, I'm betting that if he is ousted later in the game he'll try explain how lynching the horror is a "waste of a lynch" when we could be hitting "real scum". Also, notice how he is *already* taking about the psychologist. Its the number one thing on his mind. He couldn't even get past the first paragraph without worrying about it
What danger does the Horror pose to town? He has no KP, and the only effect he has is that the psychologist dies when he comes into contact with him (And the psychologist is a role that focuses entirely on the horror mechanic), and he screws up our medic and mafia KP. He poses no direct danger to us, and is only dangerous in that he can end the game early if he achieves his win-con. However, his win condition won't come into effect until at least day three, simply due to the somewhat slow rate of conversion. This means that it is relatively safe to ignore him for day 1 at least, because he has the power to do nothing to town. In fact, I would say that the people hunting for the horror are more likely to be mafia, because it provides them an out in terms of analysis because they can scum hunt for something that is actually anti-town, not mafia, and that will give them town cred.
So, to talk about the set-up a little, do people think it would be a good idea for the psychologist to claim his target at the end of night 1? It makes the psychologist claim early, but that way if he dies, then we have probably found the Eldricht Horror. The only way this wouldn't be the case, would be if mafia shot him, but then he could just claim earlier. (Because mafia don't really want to shoot him right away without reason, as he keeps them from losing the game to insanity as well)
Look at this magnificent plan to get his hands on the psychologist, for a 1/13 chance of losing outright he gets to kill his #1 threat to victory. Plus, he is going to be so "pro-town" the worrying about the psychologist checking *him* won't be an issue. Look at point 1 and 2 above, here is wiggles, promoting a plan that reveals the psychologist yet appears pro-town. this is the giveaway that wiggles has only one focus. Notice how the mafia is only mentioned in passing and the medic isn't even a concern. Its because to wiggles those things aren't important, in his mind those take second place to the much more relevant psychologist that stands in his way, and of course to appearing town
You have to take posts as a whole, keep reading...
As well, why is the medic a concern when talking specifically about the horror and the psychologist? The medic does not effect that dynamic, while the mafia can by shooting the psychologist. Nice try to make me look like I'm focusing too much on the psychologist, when he's the only role that's relevant when talking about the horror.
There's both Pro's and Con's to this, and it depends on the relative threat that we perceive the Eldricht Horror as.
Pros:
-Lets us catch the Eldricht Horror more easily, knowing as soon as the Psychologist dies. -Let's us coordinate the Psychologist a little (don't know if this is necessary)
Cons:
-Mafia know not to shoot the Psychologist, reducing the pool of townies (1 person so not that terrible) -Mafia can screw with town by killing the Psychologist and trying for a mislynch on his target.
Personally, I don't really think it's worth it after actually writing out the Pros and Cons, but I don't think I'm going to delete this post because I spent like 5 minutes writing it, and it provides a good start for actual discussion. In my opinion, a better option is actually having the psychologist bread-crumb his visits, so that way, if he ever dies and flips, then we have a list of players cleared of being the Eldricht Horror, and we have a possible target for who the Third Party actually is.
and now he is backtracking, while still pushing for the psychologist to "breadcrumb", which wiggles, our mega clue master will be able to catch. Notice how he isn't even supporting his own plan, its a "point of discussion". In other words, he is hoping a foolish townie is going to pick it up and run with it, or even better a stupid psychologist is going to think "huh, this isn't bad, I better do as wiggles suggested". A real townie, someone who cares about whether the town loses or wins is not going to propose what he considers a bad plan, especially not a veteran player like wiggles, who knows that as a rule of thumb, towns are stupid and tend to subscribe to bad ideas. BY proposing a poor idea as a "point of discussion" wiggles is pushing all the objectives of a smart horror.
Not backtracking. I came up with the idea of having the psychologist claim, but then decided that it was bad, and said so in my post. However, instead of not posting at all, I decided that it would be better to just post it anyways to provide a point for discussion, which had been very much absent until that point. Only an IDIOT would have read that post, where I say "I don't think it's really worth it", and then decide to claim Psychologist in thread. I was actually hoping that someone would try to argue against what I said, and push for the plan to be implemented, because there would be high chance of them being the horror (not a dumb townie). Unfortunately, no one took the bait.
So, you're putting words in my mouth again to try to push my lynch. I did not suggest that the psychologist should claim, in fact I said that I think it's a bad idea. As well, if you read my further posts, I said that the psychologist should breadcrumb, but that the rest of town should breadcrumb in that case as well, because then mafia can't just find the breadcrumbs and blue-snipe. I suggest a plan of obfuscation, that will provide the ability to easily reveal targets on flip or on claim, as opposed to opening up the avenue of fake-claiming without prior clues for the mafia. Also, such breadcrumbs should only be for names of targets, not the actual action as well.
So, is it better to post something, that you know is a bad idea, in order to promote discussion, or is it better to post nothing at all? Ferryman seems to believe that it is better to not post, or that someone posting and trying to generate discussion is anti-town. He twists what I wrote a lot, by saying that I'm trying to push forward this plan, when in reality, I myself wrote that it wasn't that great. As well, instead of discussing the merits of my ideas with me, the point of my post, he instead simply attacks me as the horror, which does nothing to help us choose the most optimal route of play.
On August 24 2011 07:35 TheFerryman wrote:
On Meta, and Wiggles.
So, Jackal, meta makes you think wiggles is not a 3rd party, does it? Lets look at the a game where wiggle has been third party in the past, and compare his behavior in that game to his behavior here. (I am disregarding the game where he was an assassin, since in that game his goal was not to appear pro-town, but rather maintain a scummy profile to avoid being shot by the mafia, and survivor mafia, where he was the only anti-town player in an open PM game)
Lets take a look at a post in Insane mafia 2, hosted by LSB, where wiggles was part of a third party faction. Here is a sample post. Some background, for those who don't feel like figuring out what happened. Bumatlarge had just claimed to be part of the town aligned circle of blues, who all knew each other and each other's alignment, in a bid to gain mayorship, no one counterclaimed him, which basically meant he was confirmed town, and a dt to boot. Kavdragon, a member of wiggle's third party team was also vying for the mayorship. Now read the post.
On March 25 2011 05:54 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Ok, so here's my thoughts on the mayorship:
For me, this is really between Kav and bum.
At the moment, I'm trying to figure out how much I want to trust bum's blue claim. So far, he is uncontested, which possibly bodes well for him being a true blue. However, as others have stated, and I've been considering, there is still the possibility of his being scum, even with no counterclaim. It really comes down to the likelihood of Blues wanting to make a 1-1 trade so early in the game, and before roles have even been given. I am assuming, since everyone will have a power, that blues will be much stronger than greens. There is also a disparity between the number of powerful town roles (Blues) and scum in this game, and while I personally feel analysis is a far stronger tool, most of the TL towns I've been in have been reverent of Blue's power, often to the point of reliance (Eg: XXXV). So just applying metagame, it seems unusual a blue would be willing to put himself out there so quickly and prominently.
I see this either as a power move by the blues (as most people are assuming), or as a cunning play by scum. A lot of my suspicion comes from timing. Bum claimed before night 0 is over, and I would have trusted it a lot more if it was on Day 1, as he would have his role already. For example, bum could be scum, but conceivably a blue wouldn't bother to contest him until they get their roles, so they can use the weakest combination of role/player on their team to out him, which makes it harder for them, considering the amount of time bum has been uncontested, which can also be used for a WIFOM argument from him.
Kav on the other hand, has no real assurances that he is not scum. So far, his posting has seemed pro-town, but he hasn't really expounded on any of his views besides that he wants to stay alive to analyze and direct the town. I've had first-hand experience with him as mayor, working closely with him in XXXVI, so I know that he is a very capable and active player. Before I'd vote for him though, I'd need to hear more about what he'd do Day 1 lynch, and what other things he'd try to do with his longevity.
So, in short, I feel both Bum and Kav would make good mayors. Kav based on personal experience with him, and Bum on the condition of being blue. I'm still trying to evaluate the likelihood of a Night 0 blue claim though, because I really don't like the timing, and would like to see if there are counterclaims Day 1. Hopefully if Bum isn't blue, someone would eventually counterclaim, because blues wouldn't want to let scum become mayor. I also don't think the lack of Night 0 counterclaims really strengthens his claim in any way, because as I've said, blues probably wouldn't counterclaim until Day 1 anyways, when they can make a much better choice of counterclaiming player.
Notice one thing, the obvious fact was that bum *had* to be a blue, else the blue faction would have conterclaimed. However third party wiggles isn't afraid to push a anti-town agenda to further his own team. 3rd party wiggles isn't afraid to push his own plans, against the town. Also notice how a third party wiggles is really good at ending his post with dodging responsibility, his whole post casts doubts on bum, yet at the end of the post he backs down, while still supporting his agenda of getting his buddy elected.
Lets compare that to his first post this game where wiggles, pushes a anti-town agenda and at the end backs down to dodge responsibility. The similarity between these two posts is... stunning. For the sake of fairness lets look at what Wiggle's normal town play looks like, with a post from BCs Arkham Asylum, where wiggles was Zsasz a vigilante.
On July 18 2011 10:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Ok, so let's get this started!
First things first, let's lay out some things we want to achieve, and some guidelines.
A pro-town atmosphere
This normally goes without saying, but it often bears repeating. If we want to catch scum, we need to have the proper environment for scum hunting and for communicating with each other. This means a couple things:
Promoting scum hunting.
Not having pointless arguments
Actively contributing
All that jazz
Basically, we want to keep the thread as clean as possible, because chaos best serves mafia, not town. If you really don't know what to do, there's town guides. I'm not going to write one here, because I'm too lazy, and don't consider myself experienced enough to try. However, I am going to go through the three points above, as I think they are very important.
We always want people to scum-hunt. There's never an excuse not to scum-hunt; everyone can do it. This provides us with many benefits. First, it's the primary method for actually finding scum. It also means that people have to give their actual thoughts, and have to come up with things beyond "I agree". This gives us information, and information is good. It lets us know what you're thinking, and it puts pressure on mafia to have to contribute. Also, forcing mafia to scum-hunt means that there's a good chance of catching them just based on their analysis, because it's hard to find people who are scummy, when you know they aren't scum.
Next, we want to avoid bickering. This goes hand in hand with keeping the thread clean. This is different from actually debating with people, and you should be able to tell the difference between rationality, and NO U. If anyone is having a pointless argument, they will be asked to stop. It doesn't help town, only mafia.
Lastly, we want people to contribute. There's a posting limit of 5 posts per day/night, but that doesn't give you permission to skirt that limit. It's easy for mafia to hide amongst lurkers, and beyond that, lurkers are nearly impossible to analyze. So, contribute. This doesn't mean make tons of pointless one-liners, it means providing actual thoughts, analysis, and content. You can do it, I believe in you. And if you don't, we can always just ask a vig to shoot you. We don't want people to lurk.
Clues
There's clues in this game. However, all clue analysis MUSTMUSTMUST be backed up by post analysis. Before you post the clue analysis too. The reason for this, is that clues will most likely point to all kills. this means that some of the clues are going to point to vigs, some will point to third parties, and the others will point to mafia. Accidentally outing a vig because you solved the clues about them is bad. So, if you think someone's attached to a clue, go back and re-read their posts. If you think they look scummy, then post an analysis that contains the clue analysis. If you think they're town, just hold onto your analysis. Clue-analysis should always be used to supplement an actual behavioural analysis. It should never be the main point for calling someone scummy. In other words: Clues pointing towards a person does not equal scum.
Third Parties
Looking at the third parties, here's what we want:
-We want Joker to die. -We want Batman to kill Joker. -This means that Batman wins, and should hopefully be removed from the game, also removing Ra’as Al Ghul who can no longer achieve his victory condition.
This is the optimal way the third party part of the game will go. We want Batman to kill Joker before Ra'as can kill Batman, so that we don't have to deal with Joker ourselves. So, if you think someone's acting like an SK, don't be afraid to point it out, as this should help Batman achieve his win-con, and let us get on with the rest of the game.
If Joker is lynched, is Batman removed from the game? If Batman is removed from the game, is Ra'as removed from the game?
Thoughts? Disagreements? Let's get this rolling.
Lets look at the key differences between this type of early game post and wiggle's post in this game. What does it talk about? It talks about catching scum, about things that are relevant to the main objective, defeating the mafia. What does it do that the other post doesn't?
1.) It gives concrete, powerful advice about things that need to be said, and things that are important to avoding chaos. Is that even mentioned in his post here? Of course not, this game, he could care less about a good scum-hunting atmosphere, since all he has to do is *appear* town, the actual atmosphere is irrelevant, since if he can't find mafia he'll fabricate a case. The post from arkham is attempting to be helpful
2.)This post owns up to what it is trying to do, that is lead and organize the town, with no excuses made for it. Wiggles shows no hesitation, no "well, actually its ok if you bicker, that might help hunt scum too" in this post wiggles owns up to his post. there is no hesitation, just ownership
3.) He doesn't focus excessively on one topic he talks about a bunch of different things. He reveals his mind is not focused around a particular target, he covers everything unlike his post this game that focuses on the two elements that he is most focused on.
Wiggle's meta fits perfectly with the way third party wiggle plays, pushing his objectives while backtracking so it looks like he isn't. It looks nothing like his town meta, where he doesn't have a single minded focus, and actually owns up to his posts, while trying to propose things that are actually helpful, rather than a objectivity bad plan.
Sorry Jackal, but your meta read is wrong, Wiggles is a Horror, without a shadow of doubt.
There's a few glaring problems in this post about meta as well. In Insane 2, I was NOT a third party. Though it is entitled third party, the faction was more equivalent to a second mafia family, with a full roster of 4 players, PM rights, and equivalent abilities. Thus, that post is a bad example of trying to find something to compare when talking about third parties. The only games I have played as true third party, were the ones as Assassin, and as Serial Killer, which you dismiss in an attempt to try to find a post that better matches the one I made in this game, in which I am more akin to mafia, than a true third party.
As well, you do not take context into the quote you pulled from AA. In that game, nearly a third of the player base was completely new, with either 1 or no games played previously. Thus, a post such as that is necessary to give direction and promote a good atmosphere with newer players. This town is mostly made up of experienced players, so there isn't really a need to provide a generic post, because everyone should be experienced enough to realize what they need to do without having the same post regurgitated at the beginning of every game. So, instead of wasting time talking about things people should have learned after a couple games, I am able to jump straight into talking about the set-up.
Meta is normally a very weak argument to make against someone, and the fact that you use incorrect meta that doesn't take context into example doesn't sit well with me either. But, since you seem to love it so much, then you should be aware that if I'm called scum on Day 1, then I'm town, and if I'm not, then I'm mafia. This has been true for maybe the last 10 normal games I've played. As well, your case against me seems eerily similar to Drazerk's and Ghrur's from AA, calling me third party, because I deigned to discuss the third parties. I'm not going to rehash everything I wrote in that game in response, but I'll link their analysis so you can see the similarities: + Show Spoiler +
On July 19 2011 12:09 ghrur wrote: Hello fellow mafia players! I see you've all been discussing SS quite a lot. Allow me to introduce another candidate for the lynch. 2 candidates are better than one, and it'd be even better if we could force the mafia to choose. Without further ado, here I go.
VOTE WIGGLES
Drazerk was the first one to nominate this candidate. His analysis is here. + Show Spoiler +
On July 18 2011 21:13 Drazerk wrote: Time to actually go to work I guess.
Let's start with our always scum fellow Mr. Wiggles shall we?
Now we could say wiggles has a track record of being scum but the problem is his scum play has been pretty bland, In fact in RTM / WaW2 we was able to pick him out as scum just because of how little effort he puts in when being scum. Now when I read the thread this morning I was pretty much blown away by how much effort he was putting in, Its almost as if he did a 180 and is trying his best to not follow his scum meta by promoting a pro town atmosphere.
On July 18 2011 10:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Ok, so let's get this started!
First things first, let's lay out some things we want to achieve, and some guidelines.
A pro-town atmosphere
This normally goes without saying, but it often bears repeating. If we want to catch scum, we need to have the proper environment for scum hunting and for communicating with each other. This means a couple things:
Promoting scum hunting.
Not having pointless arguments
Actively contributing
All that jazz
Basically, we want to keep the thread as clean as possible, because chaos best serves mafia, not town. If you really don't know what to do, there's town guides. I'm not going to write one here, because I'm too lazy, and don't consider myself experienced enough to try. However, I am going to go through the three points above, as I think they are very important.
We always want people to scum-hunt. There's never an excuse not to scum-hunt; everyone can do it. This provides us with many benefits. First, it's the primary method for actually finding scum. It also means that people have to give their actual thoughts, and have to come up with things beyond "I agree". This gives us information, and information is good. It lets us know what you're thinking, and it puts pressure on mafia to have to contribute. Also, forcing mafia to scum-hunt means that there's a good chance of catching them just based on their analysis, because it's hard to find people who are scummy, when you know they aren't scum.
Next, we want to avoid bickering. This goes hand in hand with keeping the thread clean. This is different from actually debating with people, and you should be able to tell the difference between rationality, and NO U. If anyone is having a pointless argument, they will be asked to stop. It doesn't help town, only mafia.
Lastly, we want people to contribute. There's a posting limit of 5 posts per day/night, but that doesn't give you permission to skirt that limit. It's easy for mafia to hide amongst lurkers, and beyond that, lurkers are nearly impossible to analyze. So, contribute. This doesn't mean make tons of pointless one-liners, it means providing actual thoughts, analysis, and content. You can do it, I believe in you. And if you don't, we can always just ask a vig to shoot you. We don't want people to lurk.
Clues
There's clues in this game. However, all clue analysis MUSTMUSTMUST be backed up by post analysis. Before you post the clue analysis too. The reason for this, is that clues will most likely point to all kills. this means that some of the clues are going to point to vigs, some will point to third parties, and the others will point to mafia. Accidentally outing a vig because you solved the clues about them is bad. So, if you think someone's attached to a clue, go back and re-read their posts. If you think they look scummy, then post an analysis that contains the clue analysis. If you think they're town, just hold onto your analysis. Clue-analysis should always be used to supplement an actual behavioural analysis. It should never be the main point for calling someone scummy. In other words: Clues pointing towards a person does not equal scum.
Third Parties
Looking at the third parties, here's what we want:
-We want Joker to die. -We want Batman to kill Joker. -This means that Batman wins, and should hopefully be removed from the game, also removing Ra’as Al Ghul who can no longer achieve his victory condition.
This is the optimal way the third party part of the game will go. We want Batman to kill Joker before Ra'as can kill Batman, so that we don't have to deal with Joker ourselves. So, if you think someone's acting like an SK, don't be afraid to point it out, as this should help Batman achieve his win-con, and let us get on with the rest of the game.
If Joker is lynched, is Batman removed from the game? If Batman is removed from the game, is Ra'as removed from the game?
Thoughts? Disagreements? Let's get this rolling.
You will see a post like that at the start of every game, In fact it's pretty much one of the easiest ways to gain townie points as the post is pretty much common sense followed with some "weak" policies.
Notice how wiggles keeps mentioning the third parties? + Show Spoiler +
On July 18 2011 10:37 deconduo wrote: I agree that Batman killing the Joker is the ideal situation. However I would regard all 3rd party, including Batman, as anti-town. They constitute 3 extra KP each night which results in a faster lylo and less DT checks and clues. If we catch one they should be lynched. None of this 'Keep me alive and I'll help town' crap.
Given the size of the game and the heavy activity requirement there will be a lot of reading to do. There will certainly be people attempting to just pass with the bare minimum of posts. These people should be scrutinised intensly, and lynched if any clues point towards them.
Mhmm, if we catch them, we should lynch them. However, how can we catch them? The only ways I can see, are through just behavioural analysis, and also clue analysis. That's why I say, that if someone is acting like an SK, we might as well lynch them. However, SKs normally act like lurkers, or are scummy, from my experience. So, that means the batman should be shooting into lurkers and scummy people. On the flip-side though, Ra'al is going to be shooting into pro-town players, as Batman wants to try to look like a green, most likely.
The priority is:
joker>batman>ra'al
Because killing up the chain, removes the players below.
So, I guess you're right, that we should always kill third-parties, to remove their KP. However, the priority should be on the joker, as he will most likely appear scummiest, and also his death removes all third parties.
The constant talk of game mechanics makes it seem like he is pro town when he is pretty much posting fluff at this point he just seems to want to enter lylo later when he has established himself as a town player.
Shall we go into his other posts about game mechanics? + Show Spoiler +
On July 18 2011 10:57 redFF wrote: If you clue analyse backing it up with some other form of analysis or evidence can help, but isn't necessary. If you see a clue don't be afraid to point it out.
Unless its like, x is a detective, then don't point it out lol. On the whole I think relying on clue analysis is pretty terrible though so i won't be basing any of my voting around some vague clue which could be pointing to 10 different people.
Clue analysis can be strong, and also, newer players are sometimes easily swayed by it, because it seems like an "objective" form of scum-hunting. I'm saying, before pointing out any clues, look at the person who was killed, and the posting history of the player you think the clue is pointing to.
For example, if they killed a mafia, and look super pro-town, what would be the possible benefits of pointing it out?
However, if someone killed town, and look scummy, then make an actual analysis and then attach the perceived clue to it.
No one should be lynched only on clues, and clues shouldn't just be looked at in a vacuum.
On July 18 2011 11:02 CreamyButter wrote: Maybe it's because I only have 35 posts, but 5 posts a day seems like a hell of a lot, and I'm predicting a ton of spam/filler posts just to hit the minimum (I'm kind of freaking out about getting modkilled if I forget one evening lol). Maybe we should tag our posts like /analysis or /filler? Since I feel like if people are all forced to make 5 posts a day, there might be a lot of red herrings from tired townies who just want the day to end, and this way we can sort of manually adjust the posting minimum to like 3 "real" posts a day. Or 8 or whatever.
@Curu Give me a sec to think about it. From what I understand the mafia just sort of chill, analyze/snipe blues, give confusing/chaos-inspiring analysis, and attempt to plant themselves into town circles. Not sure if there are any strategies that would be particular to this game yet, but will totally get back to you on that.
Also I'm sure this is unintentional, but just to make sure,
There's a posting limit of 5 posts per day/night, but that doesn't give you permission to skirt that limit.
It's a minimum, not a limit, right?
Yeah, it's a minimum, I just used the word limit for some reason =/
If you are being active and playing the game, you shouldn't really have any problem making the 5 post minimum.
For example, you already made 2 decent posts, and still have almost 70 hours to make the other three to avoid mod-kill.
Also, filler should mostly be avoided if possible, as there are always other things to post besides useless stuff. For example, you can comment on other people's analysis, on the voting patterns or bandwagons that are going to appear, on how people are acting or trying to manipulate town, etc. There's lots to talk about. :p
On July 18 2011 11:00 redFF wrote: And regarding blacks I feel it is best to ignore them. Usually I don't really like lynching blacks, but since they all have 1kp a night and will be shooting into town I say if we find them we should be lynching them.
Im going to be treating all the black roles as serial killers.
I disagree about ignoring them. Effort should definitely be made in finding and lynching them, especially the Joker and/or Batman.
Agreed. Together the third party hold the same amount of KP as the entire mafia, and based on probability, are more like to kill town than mafia too.
On July 18 2011 11:41 Curu wrote: Just a lovely note to our lovely DTs out there:
Never check a man who is a very likely lynch. If you find a guilty, well he's getting killed anyways. If you find an innocent, then you shouldn't be outing yourself to save him anyways unless there are very few players left in the game. The Godfather/third parties also give innocent checks.
To our lovely Vigilantes:
Likewise, if someone is declared a policy lynch or something of that nature, it is far better to have our Vigilantes shoot them instead. The lynch process gives us no information when reds can easily bandwagon lynch someone. Remember that the lynch is a process for finding information and connections as well, not just a simple kill.
Also, to add on to advice for DTs, especially as there are a lot of newer players present, always try to form a case around a player based on analysis if you get a guilty check. Do not just claim. Claiming early is never a good thing, as a 1-1 trade with mafia benefits them more than town.
On July 18 2011 11:51 Zona wrote: ^ Well, a "1-1 trade" benefits town a TON more than the mafia, if the town is vanilla. But a DT trade for a mafia is a poor one.
Oops, I might have screwed up the logic, haha. Been playing scum for too long. O.o
Green for mafia is an awesome trade, as we outnumber the mafia.
1-1 with a DT isn't great early on, especially depending on who the scum is. For example, if you checked random lurker A and they returned red, try to get them shot or lynched, don't claim. Trading a DT for a red lurker isn't a very good trade, when we can get additional use out of the DT. Use your discretion, but I think making a push for a lynch based on analysis should be the first step taken, before any kind of claim.
So essentially most of his posts are either about, The third parties or how to deal with clues.
He has actually done little scum hunting which is a typical trait of his scum play.
In my opinion Wiggles is trying very hard to not look like his regular scum meta by "Appearing" to put in effort but with the little scum hunting / FoSing from him he seems to have just concentrated on the mechanics side of the game (Basically fluff) and promote his "Town atmosphere" the best way he can.
FoS on Wiggles
##Vote: Mr. Wiggles
Now, while I have read it, I came to the conclusion of my own accord. I will most likely bring up similar points, but I shall try to add new material as well.
First off, if you notice, Wiggles has not given up ANY information. His posts consist of general advice, "null tell" posts, defenses, and future promises. They all serve a purpose, if he were mafia. General advice makes him look town. Null tell is an easy way to write something off while seeming logical and townie. Defenses = I DON'T WANT TO GET LYNCHED. Future promises mean nothing except that he gets to hide his current information. What's lacking is a stance, a thought, a suspicion, anything concrete to show he's actually scum hunting. Mafia moves right here, gentlemen. Or, you know, SK moves.
Now, if you were to look through wiggle's posts, you'll notice that in his very first discussion of mechanics/generalities, he goes in depth into third party thinking. He also seems to be promoting the bats. Notice: + Show Spoiler +
So, that means the batman should be shooting into lurkers and scummy people. On the flip-side though, Ra'al is going to be shooting into pro-town players, as Batman wants to try to look like a green, most likely.
The priority is:
joker>batman>ra'al
Because killing up the chain, removes the players below.
So, I guess you're right, that we should always kill third-parties, to remove their KP. However, the priority should be on the joker, as he will most likely appear scummiest, and also his death removes all third parties.
"So, I guess you're right" seems like a begrudging answer. He didn't want to admit it. "batman shooting into lurkers and scummy people" seems to be promoting the bats. Notice also how he's analyzed the likely behavior of theese characters already. This indicates a lot of thinking about these roles. This makes me inclined to believe he's Bats, or at least an SK.
based on probability, are more like to kill town than mafia too.
My god. He's even thought about third party probabilities. I'm wondering if he means cost/benefit probabilities or just hey, 3/4th = town and less than 1/4th = mafia. :/ If only he specified. but then, that'd be too much info wouldn't it?
Now, around 7/18 13:14 TL time, something interesting happens. Pyo softly pressures Wiggles. Wiggle's response? A paragraph, providing meta-game proof that his actions are a "null-tell." See here. + Show Spoiler +
Meh, it's a null-tell again. Examples, GM in Real-Time Mafia, Kavdragon in Pick Your Power Insane. Both making long posts trying to direct town at the beginning, both town. Also, if you think my post is spam, please point out how. If you read it, I specifically say I'm not going to write a general how to play town guide, just give a little bit of general advice against what's made town lose in about three of the last four games I've played, and then talked about how to use clues properly and that killing Joker is a high priority for town. It's not even that massive either, haha.
The problem here is that there was in no way ANY threat towards him. I would shrug it off. Why does it matter? I see this as over-defensive. An act of Mafia/SK. I called Curu out on something similar, and I'm calling Wiggles out on this now. Pyo continues accusing, but never voting, to put on pressure. Wiggles starts getting angsty, defensive, and even a bit upset I dare say. Notice the ad-homs coming out. + Show Spoiler +
Are you sure about that? I'm starting to question if you read posts or just skim through them.
There's no reason to do that at all. Name calling creates chaos and strife. We don't need that sort of atmosphere. I prefer logical to the emotional. I guess SKs/Mafia prefer different.
That quote happened around 7/18 15:45. Wiggles doesn't post again until 7/19 2:16. Looking at the big picture of the day, Wiggles has done absolutely nothing. Generic advice and defense. Great. How useful. But he seems like town! No, no he doesn't.
By the time Wiggles comes back, discussion has already taken place on new lynch candidates. New suspects. New post analyses to be done. Does Wiggles do any of that? No! He doesn't scum hunt! He jumps STRAIGHT to defending himself from Drazerk's accusation. Let's take a look. + Show Spoiler +
I'm gonna address the case against me pretty quickly, but basically I'm being accused of talking about game mechanics for the first two hours of the game, and not scumhunting. (Game started 10KST, last quoted post at 11:57KST). This accusation is true, but shouldn't mark me as scummy, given that it's pretty hard to scum hunt in the first two hours of the game, as most people have yet to post, or have very few posts. Mechanics are just a starting point to get people talking at the beginning of the game, as there is very little else to talk about. Scumhunting begins from there.
Notice, he says it's only 2 hours due to the last quoted post. Hahaha, he doesn't even try to give correct info. He had, in actuallity, 5 hours and 45 minutes worth of material to try and scum hunt off of, and THEN another 16 hours and 16 minutes of information to add in something with his defense. What does he do? He says he only had 2 hours. He LIED to strengthen his defense. Scum move, yes? The rest of his post talks about how the game started. Yeah, we all read that. That's not new information. Where's the scum hunting wiggles?
Palmar calls him out on this. Palmar even stated there was no threat, and Wiggles didn't even need to defend. Oh, but defend he did. Just like earlier, with Pyo, he jumps on the defense and never attacks. He hints at attacks, like at Palmar (saying Palmar bandwagons) and SS (agreeing with Curu that SS lied), but he gives no analysis and he does not VOTE. HE'S NOT VOTING! He says Palmar is contradictory, and SS seems really suspicious and contradicted himself, yet he votes for neither. WHY? Because he doesn't want to commit to anything. No votes, no trails. Just soft hints. He's afraid to be wrong, to stick his head out, to provide information.
I can do clue analysis if you want. The only problem with your plan though, is that the clues only point to specific mafia, not all of them, so there won't always be clue analysis available for each lynch. A lack of clue analysis is not absolving.
Look. Once again he wants to do something without doing anything. Clue analysis doesn't need to point to anyone. It'll be vague. It'll be part of a team. You'll hide your opinion. It's IN THE FUTURE. Once again, this is not scum hunting. This is not taking a stance. This is being as unhelpful and uninformative as possible. Scum/SK play.
So, after Wiggles stated that "there's a lot to talk about," that "he's re-reading the thread and taking notes on players," and that "we should keep a pro-town atmosphere," he has done none of those things. What a contradiction. I guess he's right that "scumhunting doesn't magically appear," especially not from scum.
Join me, and vote Wiggles. Let's break up the bandwagons. Let's force him to take a stance. Let's force Mafia's hand and get them out amongst the townies. Most of all, let's lynch this killer.
Ok, here's a question for you: "As the horror, what purpose does that post serve, as compared to not posting it at all?".
You say that it's to put forward a plan that some idiotic Towny will use reverse psychology on in order to claim psychologist on day one. However, I'd disagree, because I wasn't pushing the plan and instead called it bad in my own post, baiting for someone to try to argue against me.
So, then is it to establish myself as a townie with the first strong post of the game? You say that the horror will optimally try to establish himself as being very town, in order to dodge the lynch. I disagree with this again, though. By acting pro-town, the horror increases the chance that the mafia will visit him, because pro-town and active players are one of the highest hit priorities for mafia. The horror can't fake medic protection, since when mafia visit him, he kills the person he visits as well. Mafia will know as soon as they visit him the he's the horror, due to the redirection in KP, unless the Horror manages to stack on a mafia hit. Even then, it's not as good for him, because as medics die, or claim, it will become apparent that he was never protected. If mafia know who he is, they will make a case against him (which will necessarily be strong because they know they're correct), which is a bad thing for the horror.
As I see it, optimal strategy for the horror is to avoid being hit for as long as he can without becoming too big of a lynch target. This means somewhat lurking or simply trying to blend in on Day 1 and maybe 2, to avoid early hits, before increasing his contributions on later days to stop from becoming a lynch target, hopefully far enough along that he can secure his victory before being shot.
Acting as I was (before I was the target of analysis), actually goes against what I see as optimal horror play, as being active and trying to promote discussion is inherently pro-town (Or at least appears that way, as you say), and so increases my chances of being shot, on top of being one of the more veteran players. A better strategy would to be to lurk through Day 1, to avoid a hit, as the only reason for a hit in that scenario would be veteran status, which I believe is lower in priority than actual active and contributory townies.
@Tnkted
Can you explain why you think Palmar is scummy better? You seem convinced that you have a strong case, but I'm not liking your repetition of "It's day 1 so if I'm wrong, it's not THAT big of a deal.", as a mislynch is always bad for town. You seem to be downplaying the significance of it, such that you can seem convinced that you're correct, but if you're wrong, you don't take responsibility for it, since it's "only day 1, so no biggie".
On August 25 2011 02:03 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Alright sorry for actually mentioning visiting someone, didn't see the cons on breadcrumbing
Breadcrumbing summary: The doc lies so mafia cant backtrack who healed the person they attacked accurately... so the doc cant breadcrumb
The rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit
So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously? e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH
If players lie in breadcrumbing, then we get WIFOM and confusion. The doc can´t point at his breadcrumbs in case he is going to get lynched, so he´ll probably get lynched precisely because his breadcrumbs don´t add up with what is happening in the game. Scum and EA will analyse breadcrumbs, either getting valuable info, or a good alibi, which the Blues can´t contradict without outing themselves. It will create a mess, and we don´t want a mess.
I'm saying town should agree on who the psych should visit and no-one should breadcrumb themselves essentially turning psych into a group role to avoid the being singled out as did/did not visit psych dying could correlate to a) psych visited horror, b) horror visited psych or c) mafia attacked psych if psyche is sane when he dies, we can rule out c, but c could happen the same night as a or b if we don't know who the psych visits, we don't get any information on who EH might be, if we do, it's a 50/50 I'm pretty sure we're better off with the 50/50
Anonymous vote also won't work, in the case that the psychologist decides to hit another target who he thinks is better, which may leave us in a situation where he hits the Horror, but never even visited the "town chosen" target, leading us to a mislynch. As well, it opens the door to manipulation from the horror/mafia on who the target should be. Pretty much the same reasons that all blues aren't directed in normal games.
@Tnkted
Thanks for explaining that, it makes me feel better about you. Not sure why you were referring to a slip when you thought his reaction to pressure was what was scummy, but that's actually pretty interesting.
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote: The town has no way of knowing for sure who is the mafia nor the eldritch horror. It starts 9v3v1, assuming the mafia manage to hit town it's only ever going to go downhill unless we lynch and get lucky and/or someones percieved slip up is actually that. I'm thinking the plan to mention who we visited (even if we didn't) is better than nothing because *if* the psych happens to die there is a remote chance he did actually visit the horror That said, I'm going to kick things off and say I'm going to visit Erandorr, I advise everybody to choose someone and do the same.
I never actually believed Palmar was anti-town, but there was an arguement against him and I didn't want to not lynch, so ##Unvote
Now, having read up to this point, one person seems to be pushing the identity of the horror rather too strongly, don't you think? I'm thinking he's panicked from getting the third party role and tried to pin the blame on someone else from the get-go ##Vote: TheFerryman
Note how Ferryman used examples of wiggles from other games, despite this being his first? I think he was likely looking at other games to see how a third party faction should be played, and just happened to come up with some 'evidence' that wiggles could be used as a scapegoat.
Also I don't really think meta-arguements should be used, keep it within what's been said this game.
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: While I still think Ferryman is the horror from my arguement on the bottom of the last page, it makes more sense to go mafia hunting instead, so:
NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum. this screams distancing himself from ferryman / setup for a future scenario.
JeeJee, could you please explain how you reasoning here?
if we kill EA, night is skipped
My apologies, I forgot that.
##Unvote
##Vote MrWiggles
just for references sake, i made a list
posts so far since the game started 1. Mr. Wiggles 5 2. Cyber_Cheese 12 3. Sevryn 8 4. TheFerryman 12 5. chaos13 5 6. Palmar 14 7. Navillus 5 8. Eiii 2 9. JeeJee 2 10. Jackal58 11 11. Forumite 8 12. Erandorr 11 13. tnkted 18
both of eiii's were spent accusing palmar scum tend to stay really quiet on sc2 mafia, im not sure how forum mafia compares
So what made you change your mind so quick, when neither me nor ferryman posted between these? Rather contradictory, don't you think?
On August 25 2011 04:05 Palmar wrote: I'll be voting for Mr. Wiggles.
Ferryman posted a good analysis on the original indecisiveness of Wiggles's original post, but what finally convinced me was the fact Wiggles tried to draw up a case from another game where he was wrongly accused as town.
##Vote Mr. Wiggles
I posted that, because to me, his accusations feel very similar to the ones I faced all game long in Arkham Asylum.
He thinks I'm trying to downplay the danger of the horror, so that must make me the horror. (When I'm only pointing out that he's not the biggest threat to town on day 1) People did the same thing in AA, saying that by me saying that Batman will attempt to act pro-town, I was trying to make him appear as a pro-town role, and so I myself must be Batman.
He says that I'm opening with a general post talking about the set-up instead of scum hunting, when we are only several hours into the day, with very little to talk about, so a post like that is justified if it is the first one, in order to begin discussion. In AA, I was accused of being scum because I opened with such a post, and for "a lack of scum hunting", only 7 or so hours into the day.
He also says that I'm focusing too much on the horror and the psychologist, when in AA I was accused of focusing too much on the third parties, and so that must make me one myself.
It's easy to see the parallels, and part of my reaction is exasperation, because it feels to me as though it's going to be a repeat of AA, where I'm going to have to fight off accusations of being a third party the entire game, and where my credibility will be shot, because of those same accusations.
Since when is it a sure sign of scum to express trepidation? I'm normally very unsure and indecisive, both in mafia, and as a person. The difference in AA, is that I had a gun with infinite ammo, so if someone was scummy enough, I could just shoot them dead. Even as town, you'll play differently between being different roles, like VT, medic, vig, vet, mason, etc. There's different priorities and mindsets with each, that will influence how you post and play.
Also, no one has answered what advantage I would gain from even making my first post, if I was the EA. I started to write what I thought was a decent plan, then realized at the end that it was bad. However, instead of just deleting it and lurking, I decided to offer it up for discussion, to start people talking instead of being useless, and to fish for reactions.
I never said it was good, and never said it should be implemented. I also don't see how it's even possible to backtrack in one post. I made an objective plan, decided it was bad, but wanted to see how others reacted. The horror would try to argue with me, in order to see it implemented in some way, as it is beneficial for him. Scum are going to try to attack it, but also try to attack me, in order to appear to be contributing, and to lower my credibility while strengthening their own. It's scummy because I never actually proposed the plan be put into action, but by suggesting so, scum would have been able to make me look scummy and attack my credibility, furthering their objectives.
As well, something I think needs to actually be discussed and addressed in this game, is lurkers. What do people think should be done about them? Normally, we can just threaten to have a vig clear them out, but since in this game there are no vigs (besides Insane Medic, after a fashion), we're going to have to find a new way to promote discussion. Threatening lynch is one way to do it, but as this is a mini, spending lynches on hard to analyze lurkers might not be the best way to go, as it lets scum bandwagon and influence in such a way that we will likely only kill townies. We have several players with very few, short, posts, so I think we should address it before it becomes too much of a problem. What do others think?
On August 25 2011 06:25 TheFerryman wrote: Making lists is a great way to contribute without contributing, and in this post you go and point out that Eiii is lurking and then vote for wiggles. While indicating mafia like to lurk, you either aren't reading what you write or you just wanted to post without thinking. Either way, its poor play, I expect you to remedy that asap, also I want you to explain why you voted wiggles.
For the purposes of this post, Elritch Horror = EH Based on the arguments so far, I believe wiggles to be the EH I'm not a fan of meta arguments at all, if someone were to slip up it should be a mistake they made completely in-game As for why wiggles when I suspect someone as scum? There are 4 things that can happen if we lynch: 1) The person is a townie 7/13, it's not a real loss comparatively, bad but still acceptable 2) The person is a power role (Doc/Psych) 2/13, much worse off for town 3) The person is mafia 3/13, this is acceptable, not the best solution but a good one 4) The person is EH 1/13, night is skipped and we stand at essentially a 12p game, psyche is as good as townie, and it's a 96H day 5) No-one, the game proceeds to night, I'll go into this below
On any of the first three, we can analyse the people who put the person up there and potentially narrow down our list of suspects. Of note, and assuming that the towns intelligent choices don't allow the vote to get deflected by the mafia such that all 13 people have an equal chance (It's potentially the other way around), losing a power role is half as likely as killing a scum.
Now on to the night, EH first, 5 possibilities, all fractions are based off no-lynches 1) He chooses mafia, 1/4, town is unaffected 2) He chooses Townie, 7/12, again no effect 3) He chooses Doc, Doc might now kill someone he deemed important enough to heal tonight 4) He chooses Psych, psych promptly dies 5) Psych heals the EH's target later, I estimate this at 11/12*1/11, since there's an 11/12 chance the Psych isn't the target with the EH and a 1/11 it's the correct one, this is 1/12, roughly 8.3% (wow what that's back to 1/12?! Is my math right?)
5 isn't possible if the town votes for Psychs target unless EH is stupid, I argued this being a good idea earlier, I still stand by that.
The mafia will do one of 5 things (I was about to ask if mafia would know the reason their attack failed, doc heal verses EH, but they know if they go insane and if doc heal saved the target so it's elementary) 1) The mafia hit the EH, they know who he is now and have no reason to kill him, in fact they potentially benefit keeping him alive so a night is not skipped 2) The mafia hit a Townie, 7/10, someone who was nowhere near the towns focus is killed more than likely and nothing good comes of it 3) The mafia hit the Doc, 1/10, bad night 4) The mafia hit the Psych. 1/10, potentially just as bad 5) Doc heals the victim, 9/10*9/12*1/9, person is known to be town, 9/12 being the docs non-scum targets, 9/10 is the doc not being the one hit, 1/9 is the chance of a correct choice, which becomes 3/40, or 7.5% (Again, math check)
Note that some combinations of the above are worse than others Under which circumstances did we gain information overnight? There's a 3/40 that the doctors save will occur (the chance worked out the same it was the horror that got hit, at this point I distrust my math more so than ever, saddening for a student engineer but I digress) There's a 1/12 that we know the person psych visited isn't the EH, assuming we know who the psych visited, halve this because there is an equal chance the EH visited him, and a 1/144 of the optimal both if we add 3/40 and 1/12, there is about 16% chance something good happened overnight without a lynch, whereas there is a 31% chance we hang a scum note that the former percentage would go up if the lynching isn't the doc/psych
This is why I am pushing for a lynch so hard.
Funny, I thought you said you thought I was the EH. What changed your mind?
Also all those numbers are irrelevant, we know we have to lynch, and no one is going to allow a no-lynch to happen. That does *not* mean jumping on every possible vote that happens. You are the current voteleader, should we all vote for you as to not risk the possibility of a no lynch? Or should we look for the EH or scum and make our lynch count? Remember if we lynch a townie we bring the mafia a step closer to victory.
Think before posting, lynching correctly is vital, and jumping on every bandwagon isn't going to achieve that. We could all pull a number out of a hat to pick who we lynch, how would that help bring us closer to victory? Of course not, it would provide no information, its the same deal with easy bandwagons, mafia can easaly blend in with arguments like the one you are making "oh, I didn't think he was mafia, but hey, I did it to avoid a no-lynch"
Your justification is poor to say the least, step up your game. What made you change your mind about me being the EH? If you really think I am it is your duty to write an analysis that proves it and sell it to the rest of the town.
You don't want to lynch anyone, just for the sake of lynching, you want to lynch scum. Otherwise you aren't town.
At the moment, the current evidence points to wiggles as the EH. Rest assured that if/when it's wrong I'll be making a full post on why your the real EH. Until the first lynch or two, we have no clear-cut way of determining who the mafia is, after that point we can see who defended the innocent/guilty person and analyse from there I'm not quite sure at what point you convinced yourself that the band wagoning I was doing wasn't directed at people I believed to be scum It would be in the eldritchs best interests to discredit the people who accuse him wouldn't it?
What evidence? That I have slightly less posts than him? (Which says nothing when you don't consider quality or length).
Also, as a word of advice, the way to find out who the mafia are, is through analysis and discussion. This is why we don't random lynch, and why it's possible to find scum as early as day 1. And, I'm going to cut you off at the pass here, but looking only at who defends or attacks scum isn't a great way to find more scum. Townies can have wrong reads, and scum will and do bus their own team mates. You have to look at more than that.
On August 24 2011 01:49 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Vote: Navillus
On August 24 2011 01:52 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: Palmar
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: TheFerryman
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: Tnkted
On August 25 2011 02:31 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote MrWiggles
Please tell me what your actual scum reads are, with reasons. Do you still think that all the people you voted for are scum, or do you believe some of them to be town now? Why?
This is not what happened. My win condition is to eliminate all threats to town. I did not slip, you're trying to manufacture evidence out of something that doesn't exist. My joke can't even be shrugged off as bad town play because nothing exists in it that would indicate I'm not town.
This post sets off a lot of alarm bells for me. So many that I'm just gonna go ahead and ##vote Palmar
Wiggle's plan is awful and super-pro EA, yeah, but the more interesting part of his posts to me is how much he's pushing that everyone should breadcrumb. This is my third try on typing up something about breadcrumbs, and I'm not at all sure what to think about them anymore. They can be really useful in piecing everything together lategame, yeah, but I'm really worried about how they can be used to manipulate town. Breadcrumbing pro-town stuff all game long and then revealing it all when it's LYLO or something is a really good plan for smart scum. So our only option would be to look back at people's crumbs after they die, which again leaves town open to manipulation if scum can make some really good connections that aren't there. So basically, the only way we should trust any sort of breadcrumbing scheme if if the person who made the crumbs claims them and then flips town. And, if that's the case... why do we even need breadcrumbs? I understand that, especially in a game like this where the blues' actions are so critical, it's really appealing to try to set up a system where everyone can deduce what happened, but looking at the setup, I don't think it's a good idea in this game.
alright I hope that made sense. One more thing: What happens if an insane doctor visits EA?
On August 24 2011 07:35 Palmar wrote: Care to explain what alarms it sets off? You seem to be perfectly fine with throwing down a vote based on nothing but "setting off alarms".
You made a post containing something that could be taken as scummy, tnk pointed it out, you go 'derp' and tell him to stop looking for things that aren't there. So far so good.
Then, once tnk pushes you a bit, you get really defensive. That post I quoted just doesn't feel like a post that a comfortable player makes.
He has a grand total of two posts this game.
In the first one, he doesn't do a good job explaining why he thinks Palmar is scummy, and then votes for him. He then spends a great deal of time talking about breadcrumbs. However, the way he goes about it, lets him say almost nothing in a large amount of text. Basically, he goes "This is good sometimes, but other times it isn't", before coming to the conclusion he doesn't think it's a great idea, which doesn't really follow from what he was saying, and is based on "looking at the set-up", which he doesn't bother to explain. So, he has a nice wall of text, that essentially says nothing, before he comes to a conclusion based on premises not even mentioned in his post.
His second post, he just says "You reacted weird", but he never goes further than that, or tries to add more pressure to Palmar. As well, he spends no time trying to convince others that Palmar is scummy, and completely leaves the thread.
This is also disconcerting, because he had time to post on TL today, but has not chimed in on any of the discussion that has been happening in the last 24 hours. I think he's a good candidate for a scummy lurker, and would like to see what he's thinking right now.
Also, besides me, who do you believe to be scummy, Ferryman?
Personally, cybercheese comes across as a very inexperienced and new player. He's trying to be active, and it seems like he's trying to contribute. However, people think he's scummy because of the things he's trying to push. To me, though, he seems to just be pushing things that are bad for town, because he truly believes that they are good. I don't think that a scum team would actually let one of their members post in such an obviously anti-town way (unless I was the leader :p), to the point where he's going to get lynched on day 1. As well, why have a completely new player push anti-town ideas? I get that it might be that he isn't the greatest loss to their team if he's lynched, but it also seems like he would have the lowest chance from his scum team to actually accomplish his objectives and convince people, meaning that there isn't much use in letting him post it in the first place. All in all, he looks scummy, but I think this is because he's new, more than because he's actually scum.
I'm not going to vote for him now, but if it comes down to it, I'll vote him before I go to bed, to help make sure a lynch happens, and because of the fact that even though he doesn't seem to be scum to me currently, there's still a better chance of him being scum than myself, when I know my own alignment.
So, I'd like people to discuss Eiii. What are your thoughts on this player? Do you think he's scummy? Do you think it's worth lynching a lurker day 1 to dissuade against it in further days, when there are no other means, such as vig shots? Will you help me vote for him?
Right now, a lot of the discussion seems to be about myself or Cybercheese, and this is letting a lot of people lurk by with little to no posts of substance.
On August 24 2011 07:23 Eiii wrote: ...and right away wiggles and palmar make themselves the topics of the day.
On August 24 2011 01:12 Palmar wrote: Right.
This is not what happened. My win condition is to eliminate all threats to town. I did not slip, you're trying to manufacture evidence out of something that doesn't exist. My joke can't even be shrugged off as bad town play because nothing exists in it that would indicate I'm not town.
This post sets off a lot of alarm bells for me. So many that I'm just gonna go ahead and ##vote Palmar
Wiggle's plan is awful and super-pro EA, yeah, but the more interesting part of his posts to me is how much he's pushing that everyone should breadcrumb. This is my third try on typing up something about breadcrumbs, and I'm not at all sure what to think about them anymore. They can be really useful in piecing everything together lategame, yeah, but I'm really worried about how they can be used to manipulate town. Breadcrumbing pro-town stuff all game long and then revealing it all when it's LYLO or something is a really good plan for smart scum. So our only option would be to look back at people's crumbs after they die, which again leaves town open to manipulation if scum can make some really good connections that aren't there. So basically, the only way we should trust any sort of breadcrumbing scheme if if the person who made the crumbs claims them and then flips town. And, if that's the case... why do we even need breadcrumbs? I understand that, especially in a game like this where the blues' actions are so critical, it's really appealing to try to set up a system where everyone can deduce what happened, but looking at the setup, I don't think it's a good idea in this game.
alright I hope that made sense. One more thing: What happens if an insane doctor visits EA?
On August 24 2011 07:35 Palmar wrote: Care to explain what alarms it sets off? You seem to be perfectly fine with throwing down a vote based on nothing but "setting off alarms".
You made a post containing something that could be taken as scummy, tnk pointed it out, you go 'derp' and tell him to stop looking for things that aren't there. So far so good.
Then, once tnk pushes you a bit, you get really defensive. That post I quoted just doesn't feel like a post that a comfortable player makes.
He has a grand total of two posts this game.
In the first one, he doesn't do a good job explaining why he thinks Palmar is scummy, and then votes for him. He then spends a great deal of time talking about breadcrumbs. However, the way he goes about it, lets him say almost nothing in a large amount of text. Basically, he goes "This is good sometimes, but other times it isn't", before coming to the conclusion he doesn't think it's a great idea, which doesn't really follow from what he was saying, and is based on "looking at the set-up", which he doesn't bother to explain. So, he has a nice wall of text, that essentially says nothing, before he comes to a conclusion based on premises not even mentioned in his post.
His second post, he just says "You reacted weird", but he never goes further than that, or tries to add more pressure to Palmar. As well, he spends no time trying to convince others that Palmar is scummy, and completely leaves the thread.
This is also disconcerting, because he had time to post on TL today, but has not chimed in on any of the discussion that has been happening in the last 24 hours. I think he's a good candidate for a scummy lurker, and would like to see what he's thinking right now.
Also, besides me, who do you believe to be scummy, Ferryman?
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
Right...
What's your reasoning to believe Wiggles is town?
I don´t trust the primary argument made against him. Meta is usefull, sometimes, but I don´t think it´s applicable in finding a new kind of 3rd party with an unknown optimal play, especially as the meta argument focused specifically on his first post, which wanted to start a discussion more than anything. Since then wiggles has sometimes overreacted in his defences, there might be something there, but some players has said that Wiggles is hard to read, and I´m prepared to trust that Meta more than what Ferryman brought up.
Then take a look at some of the things that have happened in the game.
Wiggles decided to vote Eiii in his opening post. There is nothing wrong with randomly voting, but the fact that he felt the need to specify it was a pressure vote (through linking an awesome song by bowie/queen), shows inherent signs of guilt, and not wanting to stick his neck out. I don't even understand what the purpose of voting someone with the intent of only pressuring would be. At he point in time he threw down that vote it'd have been more sensical to go after one of the players that have posted, or to simply claim the vote on Eiii was to get rid of lurkers.
Basically, that vote was because he was lurking, and because when he actually got around to posting, I wanted him to say something substantial and not just a one-liner before disappearing. The vote draws attention to him, and makes it harder to lurk unnoticed. As well, I was somewhat making fun of the random voting that was happening before my post, as people were all trying to pressure each other, and I was throwing my own in there as well.
Now, he's starting to post more again, and should hopefully pick up his activity and actually discuss things in the last 24 hours before the lynch.
I want to talk about this post, though:
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: Actually screw it.
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
##Unvote tnkted ##Vote Mr. Wiggles
Trying to force a no-lynch is pretty anti-town, as it gives mafia a free round of night kills without any extra information for town. (If mafia's smart, they're not going to hit town mislynch targets).
I'm also interested in this post, because it comes 45 minutes or so before the deadline for the lynch, when tnkted was at 6 votes. This means that he was in danger of having an additional person vote for him, assuring his lynch. By unvoting him, you assure that it will take at least two people to make sure the lynch goes through, and so close to the deadline, it is much more likely that we will instead be forced to use one of our extensions, much better saved for further days.
So, it seems likely to me, that either you and tnkted are scumbuddies and you wanted to save him from the lynch, or that only you yourself are scum, making what looks like a bold town statement in order to assure that the extension is used on Day 1.
On August 26 2011 03:31 Palmar wrote: I wanted to save him from the lynch.
That doesn't mean I'm scum, there is a logical leap you're taking right there. Could it possibly be that I'm a townie and I wanted to get another townie's head off the chopping block?
You intentionally avoid that scenario. I already explained my reasoning for thinking tnkted cannot be scum, you choose to ignore that to paint me red. This is basically you grasping at straws, knowing that you're against a wall.
I'm fine with it, I like a race between myself and you much better than a race between tnkted and cyber. And hopefully enough of town is reading the thread properly to see what's truly going on here.
Your reasoning for why tnkted "cannot" be scum is that he posted "lololo". That's very weak evidence to call someone town such that they "cannot" be scum. The only other thing I see, is you saying "But look at how he's posting!", which isn't exactly revealing. This takes away any responsibility for a mislynch off your back, because you can point out that you thought he was town even if you vote him, while not doing much to actually defend tnkted from a lynch or convince others that he's town.
Add on to that, that you did react oddly to tnkted's initial pressure (which makes me feel better about him being town when you flip scum), and that you've just been piggy-backing off of the Ferryman's analysis of me being the EA, also known as not mafia, and I think we've found our first red this game.
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
Right...
What's your reasoning to believe Wiggles is town?
I don´t trust the primary argument made against him. Meta is usefull, sometimes, but I don´t think it´s applicable in finding a new kind of 3rd party with an unknown optimal play, especially as the meta argument focused specifically on his first post, which wanted to start a discussion more than anything. Since then wiggles has sometimes overreacted in his defences, there might be something there, but some players has said that Wiggles is hard to read, and I´m prepared to trust that Meta more than what Ferryman brought up.
Then take a look at some of the things that have happened in the game.
Wiggles decided to vote Eiii in his opening post. There is nothing wrong with randomly voting, but the fact that he felt the need to specify it was a pressure vote (through linking an awesome song by bowie/queen), shows inherent signs of guilt, and not wanting to stick his neck out. I don't even understand what the purpose of voting someone with the intent of only pressuring would be. At he point in time he threw down that vote it'd have been more sensical to go after one of the players that have posted, or to simply claim the vote on Eiii was to get rid of lurkers.
Basically, that vote was because he was lurking, and because when he actually got around to posting, I wanted him to say something substantial and not just a one-liner before disappearing. The vote draws attention to him, and makes it harder to lurk unnoticed. As well, I was somewhat making fun of the random voting that was happening before my post, as people were all trying to pressure each other, and I was throwing my own in there as well.
Now, he's starting to post more again, and should hopefully pick up his activity and actually discuss things in the last 24 hours before the lynch.
I want to talk about this post, though:
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: Actually screw it.
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
##Unvote tnkted ##Vote Mr. Wiggles
Trying to force a no-lynch is pretty anti-town, as it gives mafia a free round of night kills without any extra information for town. (If mafia's smart, they're not going to hit town mislynch targets).
I'm also interested in this post, because it comes 45 minutes or so before the deadline for the lynch, when tnkted was at 6 votes. This means that he was in danger of having an additional person vote for him, assuring his lynch. By unvoting him, you assure that it will take at least two people to make sure the lynch goes through, and so close to the deadline, it is much more likely that we will instead be forced to use one of our extensions, much better saved for further days.
So, it seems likely to me, that either you and tnkted are scumbuddies and you wanted to save him from the lynch, or that only you yourself are scum, making what looks like a bold town statement in order to assure that the extension is used on Day 1.
##Unvote ##Vote Palmar
Trying to save who you think is townie is not scum play as palmar proved in TL Mafia XLIV I will switch my vote to wiggles so we can get him lynched I still think ferryman made a very strong case against him. Cyber cheese needs to pick up his play.
##unvote ##vote Mr. Wiggles
If you read, you can see that Palmar did not in fact try to save Tnkted, or at least, he did a very bad job of it. He did not adequately explain how Tnkted is town, and he did not push the idea that Tnkted was town in a convincing way. All he did, was remove the vote from Tnkted, ensuring that one of town's two extensions would be used on the worst possible day for it. He hasn't done anything to reinforce Tnkted's credibility, or to actually defend against the accusations of being scum, he just forced a no-lynch, which is anti-town by itself.
On August 26 2011 03:31 Palmar wrote: I wanted to save him from the lynch.
That doesn't mean I'm scum, there is a logical leap you're taking right there. Could it possibly be that I'm a townie and I wanted to get another townie's head off the chopping block?
You intentionally avoid that scenario. I already explained my reasoning for thinking tnkted cannot be scum, you choose to ignore that to paint me red. This is basically you grasping at straws, knowing that you're against a wall.
I'm fine with it, I like a race between myself and you much better than a race between tnkted and cyber. And hopefully enough of town is reading the thread properly to see what's truly going on here.
Your reasoning for why tnkted "cannot" be scum is that he posted "lololo". That's very weak evidence to call someone town such that they "cannot" be scum. The only other thing I see, is you saying "But look at how he's posting!", which isn't exactly revealing. This takes away any responsibility for a mislynch off your back, because you can point out that you thought he was town even if you vote him, while not doing much to actually defend tnkted from a lynch or convince others that he's town.
Add on to that, that you did react oddly to tnkted's initial pressure (which makes me feel better about him being town when you flip scum), and that you've just been piggy-backing off of the Ferryman's analysis of me being the EA, also known as not mafia, and I think we've found our first red this game.
Havn't we already established lynching the Eldritch Abomination is pro town? we get an extra day
We do get an extra day, but it is an extra day much better used later into the game. Day 1 lynches are fairly inaccurate, unless scum makes a major mistake (Like I think Palmar did), and trying to kill the EA now just means that town will be launched into Day 1-2, where it will be exactly more of the same as what we've had for the last 48 hours. We get no new information, and no new leads, because Town will want to kill EA for the extra day, but scum will want to kill EA for the town cred, meaning that all scumhunting put into finding the EA is more or less a null tell. Trying to find the EA on day 1, means that he doesn't have to pretend to hunt for actual mafia, and makes it so that the extra lynch is used on the least optimal day, where town has the least leads and information.
I'm town, but it doesn't even matter if you believe me, because:
I'm town, so I want to kill scum If I'm EA, I want to kill mafia to buy town cred If I'm mafia, I want to kill EA on Day 1, as outlined above
So, do you think I'm EA? Then I'm hunting scum. I know I'm town, and I'm trying to convince you of such, but it shouldn't even matter when you read my analysis, because the end goal is going to be the same. Look at it impartially, and forget that it was written by Mr. Wiggles, whom you think is EA, and then tell me what you think.
Firstly, in your analysis of me, why is it odd that you don't mention the possibility of me being town? You maintain a strong conviction throughout your posts, that I am, in fact, the horror. This made sense to me, in the context of your analysis, because the horror and mafia are going to act fundamentally different. An analysis calling someone the horror, wouldn't be the same as an analysis calling someone mafia. So, if you call me the horror, it's because you think I'm the horror, which is different from mafia. -_- For example, the horror won't push the same anti-town things as a mafia would, and in the same way, a mafia probably won't try to avoid focus in the same way as the horror.
Not a hard concept to grasp, and saying that I might be town in your own analysis just seems like a way to weaken it when you're otherwise convinced in your read.
I called you/Palmar out on calling me the horror, because hunting for the horror is an easy action for mafia to take, as opposed to faking scum hunting.
As well, Palmar isn't sticking his neck out too much. In fact, no one even called him out on it, until I did. It rather looked like he was going to get away with it. It would have been much riskier if Tnkted was actually about to be lynched, but instead he just assured that the lynch couldn't happen in the first place.
You're tunneling. You couldn't get people to believe I was the horror, so now you're trying to get them to believe I'm mafia instead.
On August 26 2011 14:15 Navillus wrote: Hmmm choosing who the psych checks actually does sound like a good idea, Wiggles, would you object to us agreeing for the psych to check you tonight?
I'd be fine with that. The only way it screws up is if EA visits him randomly, or if mafia shoot him. He should make up his own mind about who he wants to visit, though.
I'm fine with being checked, but what indication do we have that the psychologist actually visits me? I don't want him to not listen, show up dead, and then I get lynched.
If we have everyone vote, he should just vote for who he's visiting.